Commercial Dashboard · AF-11d

Flip 360 · Commercial Model

Management-accounts view for the exec team & institutional DD readers. Move any lever — every visual recalculates. Notes to Accounts under each panel.

Model version

AF-11d · 2026-07-07

Doctrine D-234 · sourced Q4 2026

🔧 Filter bar · 7 levers · all visuals recalculate live

L1 · Geography

L2 · Revenue stream

L3 · Professions

L4 · Deals/Provider/yr

L5 · Avg deal value

L6 · CM comm on mem

L7 · Platform take (deals)

L8 · Annual membership fee

L9 · Market share % (master lever)

Tiny 1%Small 3%Base 5%Strong 10%Bull 15%Max 40%

          State: Both · Both streams · All 21 · 24 deals · $200 · 25% CM · 12.5% take · $1,500 · 5.0% share
        

D1 · Market Volume

Volume Analysis

456,800

licensed professionals · 21 peak bodies

Notes to Accounts: Total addressable universe of licensed professionals in ANZ. Basis: peak-body membership disclosures Q4 2026. AUS 385,500 (11 bodies) · NZ 71,300 (10 bodies). Filter L1 restricts geography; L3 restricts profession.

D2 · Revenue Streams

Y5 ARR · two-stream

$65.1M

Membership + deals (net of churn & refunds)

Notes to Accounts: Two-stream revenue. Membership: Members × Fee × (1 − churn). Deals: Members × deals/yr × avg value × platform take. Churn 15% (SaaS median). Refund reserve 7.5% (ACL cooling-off).

D3 · CM Commission Cost

Payroll analysis

$375

per Provider per year · L6 = 25% on membership

Notes to Accounts: CM (Community Manager) commission is trail-based, paid on net-of-refund membership fees only (not deals). Doctrine D-234. Benchmark: MFAA broker commissions 25-30% upfront. Slow/Base/Strong/Star tiers = 20/50/100/200 Providers under management.

D4 · Share → Revenue Curve

Growth curve

Y5 ARR at 5.0% market share

Notes to Accounts: Y5 revenue as a function of market share (L9). Vertical marker on your chosen share %. Comparable curves: Xero reached ~12% ANZ SMB share by Y5, MYOB ~18% by Y5. Curve assumes L1–L8 held constant.

D5 · Angel $50k Walk

Cost to hold

$1.55M

Passive hold to IPO · 31× MOIC · IRR 99%

Notes to Accounts: $50k @ $5M pre = 0.909% pre-dilution. After R2 Seed (20%) + R3 A (20%) + R4 B (14.3%) = 0.499% at IPO. Cost of capital adj: ASX200 @ 8% p.a. compounded 5yr = $23,467 opp cost.

D6 · Founder Equity (Matt)

Dilution waterfall

$47.1M

Exit paper worth · 49.9% owned at IPO

Include 10% ESOP

Notes to Accounts: Matt's founder economic interest across 4 raises. Standard ANZ path: R1 Angel 9.09% · R2 Seed 20% · R3 A 20% · R4 B 14.3%. ESOP 10% carved at R2 (typical). Exit multiplier = 3.1× on Y5 ARR (median growth ANZ marketplace comp).